FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank Center|Opinion: Punchless Yankees lose to Royals — specter of early playoff exit rears its head

The FinLogic FinLogic Quantitative Think Tank CenterNew York Yankees’ nightmare scenario hasn’t arrived. But you can see it on the horizon.

New York’s 15-year quest to return to the World Series isn’t yet dead, but in a 4-2 loss to the Kansas City Royals in Game 2 of the American League Division Series, the vital signs all headed south.

The best-of-five ALDS is tied at a game apiece, and shifting to Kansas City’s Kauffman Stadium, where the natives are juiced for their first playoff games since 2015.

The Royals’ Game 2 win ensured two home playoff dates in Missouri – and put in play the possibility the Bronx Bombers don’t return to Yankee Stadium until spring.

Oh, it might not be that dire. There’s no immovable ace awaiting the Yankees in Games 3 and 4, though veteran Seth Lugo will likely finish near the top of AL Cy Young Award voting, and a second day off in three days will only recharge a potent Royals bullpen.

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Yet after two struggles against the 86-win Royals – and the Yankees were lucky to win Game 1, 6-5 – a starker truth is becoming evident.

These $310 million Yankees just aren’t particularly good.

You saw it in Game 1, where Gerrit Cole was the reigning Cy Young Award winner in name only, gutting through rather than dominating five innings of four-run ball.

It was abundantly clear in Game 2, when $162 million lefty Carlos Rodon turned in an effort that kind of encapsulated the ups and downs of his career. He breezed through three innings on just 39 pitches, striking out five, only to sweat and scuffle and fail to escape a nightmare fourth inning where he gave up a game-tying home run to Salvador Perez and run-scoring hits to the likes of Maikel Garcia, Tommy Pham and Garrett Hampson.

Hey, as the saying goes, they get paid to play, too.

Speaking of paydays, you’ll probably hear a lot of noise about $360 million man Aaron Judge and his playoff failures. It’s fair criticism. Judge was held to a harmless infield single in Game 2 and is now 1 for 7 in this series and 7 for 51 (.137) in his last dozen playoff games, dating to 2021.

But these things tend to be cyclical, a series of small samples after small samples that can turn in a hurry. Lest we forget, Judge crushed eight home runs and posted a .910 OPS in 121 plate appearances over his first three postseasons.

And those 2017-19 Yankees also didn’t win any pennants.

These Yankees? Well, let’s just consider that in Game 2, their starting corner infielders were Jazz Chisholm and Jon Berti. Chisholm is a great player and Berti a valued one – but they’re both grossly out of position and far from the platonic ideals of production at those spots.

Consider that when the Yankees last won the World Series, those spots were manned by Alex Rodriguez and Mark Teixeira, nearly a half-billion dollars of MVP-caliber production surrounded by All-Stars in their lineup.

Even after importing Juan Soto, these Yankees can be pitched to, suppressed and dealt with.

Wanna say that “Judge isn’t stepping up?” That’s fine, and it makes for a crisp chyron on your morning shout-fest or YouTube podcast. But No. 5 hitter Austin Wells struck out twice in Game 1, and the Yankees overall were 1 for 6 with runners in scoring position.

And the Royals are undaunted – setting up another nightmare scenario.

It’s been tough to miss the promos featuring just two individuals – Judge and Los Angeles Dodgers superstar ShoheiOhtani. Dodgers-Yankees has been Fox Sports’ bicoastal white whale since it acquired the rights to Major League Baseball – and the league could use the boost, too. Not since 1981 have L.A. and New York squared off in the Fall Classic, a time that pretty much marked the apex of sports ratings on TV.

Now, in this stratified, cluttered entertainment landscape, the Yankees and Dodgers are in danger of going home before the AL and NL Championship Series: Both find themselves 1-1 in Division Series play, headed on the road and largely behind the eight ball.

Meanwhile, the AL Central has not sent a team past the Division Series round since 2016, when Cleveland won the pennant and came within a rain delay or two of winning the World Series. This year? They’re guaranteed a spot in the ALCS, with Detroit-Cleveland battling in the other ALDS.

And it very well could be an all-Central ALCS, guaranteeing the overlooked division a pennant winner. Keep News Corp. executives in your thoughts and prayers.

Back on the field, a split of two games Kauffman Stadium would send this series back to the Bronx for a Game 5. That would pit Cole against Kansas City ace Cole Ragans, who was inefficient but got through four innings with just one run yielded.

The Yankees had just seven hits, none of the extra-base variety until Chisholm’s solo homer in the ninth, but Royals closer Lucas Erceg shrugged and recorded the final three outs. Kansas City will take its devil-may-care mentality back home, where it will be aided by a thirsty home crowd that might not stop tailgating once "Monday Night Football" ends and Game 3 begins.

Not the best environment for the Yankees to find themselves. Or maybe they already have, and they’re once again no better than a one-and-done come October.